Plastic pollution is no longer viewed solely as an environmental issue. A growing body of scientific evidence suggests it is becoming a major public health concern, particularly in Europe, where exposure levels continue to rise. A new study published in The Lancet Planetary Health projects that the adverse health impacts associated with plastics could more than double by 2040 if current production and consumption patterns remain unchanged.
The research focuses on the European Union, analysing how emissions linked to plastics throughout their life cycle — from raw material extraction to manufacturing and disposal — translate into long-term health consequences. The findings reinforce warnings from public health experts in Spain and across Europe that plastic-related exposure is already more extensive than previously estimated.
Modelling the future health burden of plastics
The study employs a comprehensive modelling approach to assess the global health burden of plastics between 2016 and 2040, integrating material flow analysis with health indicators such as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Under a scenario in which plastic production continues to grow — projected to increase by 100% over the period analysed — the associated health burden rises sharply.
Researchers acknowledge that the model captures only part of the problem. Due to limited data and insufficient transparency regarding chemical composition, the analysis does not fully account for the effects of microplastics, nanoplastics or many chemical additives. Even so, the impacts already identified were deemed sufficient to raise serious public health concerns.
Experts from Spanish universities and research institutions describe the study as methodologically robust, particularly in its evaluation of single-use plastics, which account for a substantial share of global production.
Reducing production, not just managing waste
One of the study’s central conclusions is that cutting primary plastic production would be the most effective strategy to reduce emissions and mitigate health damage. The authors argue that policies focused solely on recycling and waste management are insufficient to address the scale of the problem.
This position aligns with calls from scientists in Spain involved in environmental health research, who stress the need for preventive approaches grounded in the precautionary principle. Such measures include reducing plastic output, simplifying chemical formulations and enforcing mandatory disclosure of material composition to improve risk assessment.
The findings also provide quantitative support for international negotiations on a global plastics treaty, currently under discussion, which aims to address plastic pollution across its entire life cycle.
Where the greatest health impacts originate
According to the projections, the extraction of raw materials and the manufacture of polymers are the main contributors to plastic-related health damage, largely due to greenhouse gas emissions and their role in climate change. However, specialists caution that this perspective underestimates other significant risks.
Researchers in Spain highlight that chemical additives, as well as microplastics and nanoplastics generated through degradation, may play a substantial role in long-term health effects. These elements were excluded from the model due to data gaps, representing a key limitation in estimating the true burden of plastics on daily life.
Furthermore, the analysis focuses primarily on plastics found in municipal waste, which represent roughly two-thirds of total use, leaving out sectors such as construction, transport, agriculture and textiles — industries that rely heavily on plastic materials in the European Union.
How plastics affect human health
Health experts identify several mechanisms through which plastics impact the human body. First, widespread environmental contamination leads to continuous exposure to microplastics and nanoplastics via water, food and air. Second, some plastic components are inherently toxic. In the European Union, substances such as bisphenol A have already been restricted in food-contact materials due to health risks.
Third, many plastic products contain chemical additives — including flame retardants and ultraviolet filters — designed to enhance durability but potentially harmful to human health. Studies conducted in Spain and other European countries suggest that plastics can also accumulate additional toxic substances and microorganisms as they degrade in the environment, increasing their toxicity over time.
Biomonitoring studies in Europe have shown that human exposure to these substances, detected in blood and urine samples, is significantly higher than previously assumed.
Links to chronic disease and long-term risks
The health burden associated with plastics is increasingly linked to endocrine disruption, a mechanism by which certain chemicals interfere with hormonal systems. Scientific evidence associates such exposure with higher risks of obesity, diabetes and thyroid disorders, as well as reproductive health issues.
Researchers have also identified connections to fertility problems, including endometriosis in women and reduced sperm counts in men. In children, exposure has been associated with neurodevelopmental and behavioural disorders. Over the long term, studies point to an elevated risk of breast cancer and prostate cancer, conditions of particular concern in ageing populations across Europe.
Growing exposure, uncertain limits
Despite ongoing efforts within the European Union to promote recyclable and reusable materials, experts warn that human exposure to plastics is likely to continue increasing. Modern plastic products are becoming more complex, and their combined effects remain poorly understood.
What makes plastics particularly challenging from a public health perspective is their ubiquity. Unlike isolated toxic substances, plastics represent a continuous and cumulative exposure, embedded in everyday environments.
As scientists in Spain and elsewhere emphasise, reducing plastic consumption — especially non-essential uses — remains the most reliable way to limit future health impacts. Without decisive action, the projected rise in disease burden by 2040 could place additional strain on already challenged healthcare systems across Europe.